Slow Moving Tropical Storm Melissa
SLOW-MOVING TROPICAL STORM MELISSA COULD DRENCH CARIBBEAN ISLANDS THIS WEEK
Tropical Storm Melissa has slowed to a crawl across the eastern Caribbean and forecasters say its next moves are “extremely uncertain.” Over the coming days the storm could drift westward and strengthen over unusually warm waters, raising the risk of heavy rain, flash floods and mudslides across Jamaica, Hispaniola and surrounding islands.
Context: where Melissa is and why forecasters worry
As of the latest advisories, Melissa was moving at about 1 mph. National Hurricane Center guidance has trended slightly west and slower, which increases the storm’s time over warm Caribbean waters. That combination — warm sea surface temperatures plus a pause in forward motion — gives Melissa more opportunity to intensify even as wind shear at the top of the storm fights to weaken it.
All of Jamaica is under a tropical storm warning; Haiti’s southern peninsula is under a hurricane warning. Most long‑range models still show Melissa tracking north through the island chain (Haiti, Cuba or the space between), but there is a split between a faster northward track and a slower, linger‑and‑strengthen scenario that could produce a major hurricane.
Key developments to know
• Intensity trend: Melissa is forecast to become a hurricane within about three days and could become large and dangerous by the end of the forecast period if it stalls over warm water. Official updates have stressed the increasing likelihood of a powerful hurricane.
• Current strength and motion: Observations showed maximum sustained winds near 50 mph as of late Wednesday, and a near‑stationary forward speed makes short‑term track changes likely.
• Primary threat: Heavy rainfall, not wind, is the most immediate danger — especially across mountainous islands prone to flash flooding and landslides.
Impacts and risks
Rain, flooding and landslides
Even a weak or strengthening Melissa can produce intense rain totals. Forecasts call for 5–10 inches across eastern Jamaica, the southern Dominican Republic and southern Haiti through Friday, with isolated amounts higher. Western Jamaica and the northern parts of Hispaniola could see 2–4 inches. In mountainous terrain, those rains can trigger life‑threatening mudslides and rapid river rises.
Health, infrastructure and displacement concerns
Haiti faces particular vulnerability: large numbers of displaced people live in sites that flood easily, and the country has reported a recent resurgence of cholera in the capital area. Civil protection officials have issued yellow and red alerts for multiple departments and are running communications campaigns in at‑risk regions.
Scenario comparison: faster northward track vs lingering westward track
| Scenario | Timing | Likely intensity | Main impacts |
|---|---|---|---|
| Faster northward track | Moves through Hispaniola over weekend | Could become a hurricane but less time to strengthen | Shorter but intense rainfall bursts; localized flooding and landslides |
| Lingering westward track | Stalls or crawls into next week | More time over warm water → higher chance of major hurricane | Wider area of heavy rain, stronger winds, larger storm surge risk for nearby coasts |
What to watch next
1) Track updates from the National Hurricane Center — position shifts of a few dozen miles will change which islands get the worst impacts. 2) Intensity forecasts and whether Melissa maintains slow forward motion; lingering over warm water increases major hurricane probability. 3) Local watches and warnings issued by island nations, which may expand or be upgraded quickly as models converge.
Emergency managers and residents should monitor hourly updates, review evacuation routes if recommended, and prepare for flooding even if a landfalling eye never crosses their community.
- Is Florida or the U.S. mainland at immediate risk?
No. Current long‑range models favor Melissa staying over the Caribbean and moving north through islands, avoiding Florida and the Gulf in most scenarios. The track remains uncertain, so watchers should stay updated. - When could Melissa become a hurricane?
Forecasts indicate Melissa could reach hurricane strength within about three days, with increasing odds of reaching major hurricane status if it slows further. - How much rain should communities expect?
Eastern Jamaica, southern Haiti and the southern Dominican Republic may see 5–10 inches through Friday; other nearby areas could get 2–4 inches, with higher localized totals possible. - What are the top preparedness steps?
Secure property, assemble emergency supplies, move vehicles and belongings out of flood‑prone areas, and follow local evacuation or shelter guidance if issued.
Practical takeaway: Treat the storm as a heavy‑rain emergency — secure a 3‑day supply kit, clear drainage near your home, and follow local authorities’ warnings; the biggest near‑term danger from Melissa is catastrophic rainfall and flooding, not just wind.
