Major Caribbean Flood Threat
Tropical Storm Melissa brings major Caribbean flood risk
Tropical Storm Melissa is crawling through the central Caribbean and is expected to strengthen into a major hurricane by early next week. Its slow movement will wring out days of heavy rain, posing a significant flood and landslide threat, especially for Haiti, Jamaica, the Dominican Republic and parts of Cuba. Watches are already in effect as outer rainbands spread gusty showers across Hispaniola, Jamaica, Cuba and Puerto Rico.
Where Melissa is now
The storm’s center sits in the central Caribbean, several hundred miles south of Haiti, drifting northwest at a slow pace. Moist outer bands are arcing northward, delivering soaking rain and occasional gusts to Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Jamaica and Cuba. Given its sluggish track, hazards will build not only from wind but from prolonged, repeated downpours.
Watches and immediate risks
Hurricane and tropical storm watches cover portions of Haiti and Jamaica, signaling the potential for tropical-storm-force winds within 48 hours and the possibility of hurricane conditions to follow. Even areas outside the core track can see impacts from feeder bands, including flash flooding, mudslides in mountainous terrain, and short-lived power disruptions.
Two main forecast track scenarios
Steering currents and storm intensity will determine Melissa’s path. Current guidance highlights two broad possibilities:
| Scenario | Track and Timing | Implications | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Slower west, then late northeast turn | Drifts into the western Caribbean through early next week, then curls NE toward Jamaica/Cayman, Cuba, the Bahamas mid-late next week. | Longer duration rain and rising flood risk for Jamaica, Hispaniola and Cuba; extended Caribbean impacts. | Increasing |
| Quicker northward curve | Strengthens and arcs north sooner over Haiti or far E Cuba, then accelerates NE into the central Atlantic by early next week. | Shorter Caribbean window; faster exit reduces duration but could concentrate wind/rain near track. | Trending lower |
What this means for South Florida and the U.S.
The current risk to the mainland U.S., primarily South Florida, remains low but not zero. A prolonged western Caribbean stay favors a later turn away from the U.S., but interests along the Florida Peninsula should still monitor updates until confidence increases.
How strong could Melissa get?
Wind shear may limit rapid intensification in the short term by tilting the circulation and displacing thunderstorms from the center. However, the western Caribbean holds the Atlantic’s deepest warm-water reservoir, a powerful fuel source once shear relaxes. Forecasts now call for Melissa to reach Category 3–4 strength south of Jamaica next week if it remains over high ocean heat content and avoids dry air or land interaction.
Key drivers of intensity
- Wind shear: High shear suppresses rapid strengthening; lower shear opens the door to intensification.
- Ocean heat content: Deep, warm waters in the western Caribbean can support major hurricanes.
- Land interaction: Any brush with Hispaniola, Jamaica or Cuba can disrupt the inner core and cap intensity.
Flood danger is the headline
Regardless of peak winds, Melissa’s slow progress dramatically increases flood risk. Through next week, parts of the Dominican Republic, Haiti, Jamaica and Cuba could exceed 10 inches of rain, with locally higher totals in mountainous terrain. Bands of heavy rain are also possible across Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, the Turks and Caicos, and the Bahamas.
Expect life-threatening flash flooding and landslides where rain repeatedly targets steep slopes. Urban flooding, washed-out roads, and rapid rises on small streams are likely in high-impact zones.
Preparedness: what to do now
- Review local alerts: If you’re under a watch, prepare for power outages, tree damage and road closures.
- Flood readiness: Clear drains, move vehicles to higher ground, and identify uphill evacuation routes in landslide-prone areas.
- Travel plans: Build flexibility into itineraries across the northern Caribbean; expect intermittent airport and ferry disruptions.
- Supplies: Stock water, nonperishable food, medications and batteries for at least 72 hours.
Season context: Storm number 13
Melissa is the 13th named storm of the 2025 Atlantic season, forming near the climatological average date for the 13th storm (around Oct. 25). That places the basin one system shy of the long-term seasonal average of 14 named storms.
What to watch next
- Turn timing: A later, slower turn increases rain totals in Jamaica, Hispaniola and Cuba; an earlier northward curve trims duration but may tighten wind impacts near the track.
- Shear changes: Any lull in wind shear over the warm western Caribbean could fast-track intensification over the weekend.
- U.S. interests: South Florida remains a low-probability concern; incremental forecast shifts will clarify risk early next week.
FAQs
- Where is Tropical Storm Melissa right now?
In the central Caribbean Sea, several hundred miles south of Haiti, drifting slowly northwest. - Who is under watches?
Hurricane and/or tropical storm watches are in effect for parts of Haiti and Jamaica, with additional advisories possible as the storm evolves. - How strong could Melissa become?
Forecasts indicate Category 3–4 intensity south of Jamaica next week if shear eases and the core stays over deep warm water. - Will Melissa hit the U.S.?
The current U.S. threat, mainly to South Florida, is low but not zero. Keep checking official updates. - Why are slow-moving storms so dangerous?
They unload excessive rainfall over the same areas for days, heightening flash-flood and landslide risks even if winds aren’t extreme.
Bottom line: If you’re in Jamaica, Hispaniola, eastern Cuba or nearby islands, plan for several days of heavy rain and potential flooding, stay alert to local guidance, and finalize preparations before conditions deteriorate.
